在全球向清洁能源转型的浪潮中，有一种金属正悄然成为舞台中央的“关键选手”——它既是不锈钢产业的基石，更是电动汽车电池的“能量密码”，这就是镍。
从印尼红土矿到中国精炼厂，从动力电池正极材料到储能系统，镍的供应链正随着新能源革命发生深刻重构。需求激增与供应瓶颈的碰撞、技术突破与环保压力的博弈、地缘格局与市场价格的波动……这场围绕“电池级镍”的全球争夺，不仅关乎矿业企业的未来，更牵动着整个低碳转型的节奏。今天，我们就跟着矿业外刊Azo Mining来深入解析镍市场的风云变幻，看看这场“镍”战背后，藏着哪些趋势与挑战。
Nickel Market Trends: The Race for Battery-Grade Supply
镍市场趋势：电池级供应的争夺
By Samudrapom Dam Aug 7 2025
The nickel market is shifting quickly, largely because demand for battery-grade nickel, particularly for electric vehicles (EVs), is on the rise. As the push for cleaner energy increases, supply chains are feeling the strain to deliver both the right quality and enough supply. A mix of new trends and familiar challenges is now shaping what’s next for this essential industry.
镍市场正在快速变化，这在很大程度上是因为对电池级镍（尤其是电动汽车用电池级镍）的需求不断上升。随着清洁能源推广力度的加大，供应链正面临着既要保证质量又要满足供应量的压力。如今，一系列新趋势与常见挑战共同塑造着这个关键行业的未来。
An Overview of the Nickel Market镍市场概况
Nickel is crucial for a low-carbon future and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to its vital role in clean energy technologies. It has gained attention from the European Union (EU), China, and the United States of America (USA) due to its distinct chemical and physical properties.
由于在清洁能源技术中发挥着关键作用，镍对于低碳未来和实现联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）至关重要。凭借其独特的化学和物理特性，镍已受到欧盟、中国和美国的关注。
Nickel is commonly used in stainless steel and lithium-ion batteries for EVs and energy storage. From 2000 to 2022, global nickel consumption reached 62 Mt, 40 Mt from mining and 22 Mt from recycling, indicating growing demand.
镍常用于不锈钢以及电动汽车和储能设备的锂离子电池中。2000年至2022年，全球镍消费量达62百万吨，其中40百万吨来自开采，22百万吨来自回收，这表明需求在不断增长。
Despite having over 350 Mt of nickel resources, with 130 Mt economically and technologically viable, supply chain risks persist due to geopolitical instability and reliance on key regions.
尽管全球镍资源超过350百万吨，其中130百万吨在经济和技术上具备开采可行性，但由于地缘政治不稳定以及对关键地区的依赖，供应链风险依然存在。
Indonesia and the Philippines produced 60% of global nickel in 2023 but face natural disasters and policy uncertainties. Other resource-rich countries such as Australia and Brazil face barriers like environmental rules, high costs, and poor infrastructure.
2023年，印度尼西亚和菲律宾的镍产量占全球总量的60%，但两国面临自然灾害和政策不确定性。澳大利亚、巴西等其他资源丰富的国家则面临环境法规、高成本和基础设施落后等障碍。
Although technology development may boost reserves, the nickel supply chain remains emission-intensive, with complex approvals and sustainability concerns slowing project development and threatening long-term supply stability.
尽管技术发展可能会增加储量，但镍供应链的碳排放强度仍然较高，复杂的审批流程和可持续性问题减缓了项目开发速度，并威胁到长期供应的稳定性。
The Key Trends in the Nickel Market镍市场的主要趋势
Nickel demand has surged due to its use in battery cathodes. From 2019 to 2023, total nickel consumption rose by 32%, with battery sector demand rising over 200%, increasing its share from 5% to 15%.
由于镍在电池正极中的应用，其需求激增。2019年至2023年，镍总消费量增长32%，而电池行业的需求增长超200%，其占比从5%升至15%。
Although stainless steel remains dominant in the market, battery demand with stricter purity needs is reshaping supply chains. By 2050, over 50% of nickel could be used in batteries.
尽管不锈钢仍是市场的主导领域，但对纯度有更严格要求的电池需求正在重塑供应链。到2050 年，可能有超过 50% 的镍用于电池领域。
In a net-zero emissions scenario, aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, total nickel demand could double to 6,702kt per year by 2040, with EV demand growing tenfold.
在与将全球变暖限制在1.5°C目标一致的净零排放情景下，到 2040 年，镍总需求可能翻倍至每年670.2 千吨，其中电动汽车需求将增长10倍。
Battery cathode active materials (CAM) depend on high-purity chemical precursors. For nickel-containing chemistries, this includes nickel sulfate.
电池正极活性材料（CAM）依赖高纯度化学前驱体。对于含镍化学物质而言，这包括硫酸镍。
Geologically, nickel occurs in laterite and sulfide ore types. Historically, nickel sulfate was produced from two intermediates: nickel matte and refined nickel, derived through sulfide smelting. Nickel matte containing 50% nickel comes from sulfide ore processing and can be refined into 99.8% pure nickel briquettes/powders for stainless steel/battery-grade sulfate. However, high-grade sulfide resources are depleting, with few new discoveries.
从地质角度看，镍以红土矿和硫化矿两种形式存在。历史上，硫酸镍通过两种中间产物生产：镍锍和精炼镍，二者均来自硫化矿冶炼。含镍50%的镍锍由硫化矿加工产生，可精炼成纯度 99.8% 的镍块/镍粉，用于不锈钢或电池级硫酸镍的生产。然而，高品位硫化矿资源正在枯竭，新发现寥寥无几。
Recent advances have enabled the use of nickel laterite deposits, especially in Indonesia, to produce intermediates for nickel sulfate. Rotary kiln electric furnaces (RKEFs) convert laterites into low-grade products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel (FeNi). Since 2021, Chinese-owned Tsingshan and others have begun converting NPI and FeNi into nickel matte, enabling sulfate production similar to sulfide-derived methods.
近期技术进步使得红土镍矿（尤其是印度尼西亚的红土镍矿）能够用于生产硫酸镍的中间产物。回转窑电炉（RKEFs）将红土矿转化为低品位产品，如镍生铁（NPI）和镍铁（FeNi）。2021年起，中国的青山集团等企业开始将镍生铁和镍铁转化为镍锍，使得硫酸镍的生产方式与硫化矿衍生法类似。
Nickel sulfate production is increasingly relying on mixed precipitates from high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) of low-grade laterite ores, known as laterite leaching (LL).
硫酸镍的生产正越来越多地依赖于低品位红土矿的高压酸浸（HPAL）产生的混合沉淀物，即红土矿浸出（LL）。
HPAL produces mixed hydroxide/sulfide precipitates (MHP/MSP), with MHP output exceeding 250 kt in 2023 and projected to grow to 600 kt by 2027, driven mainly by rapid development in Indonesia. Though HPAL technology has existed since 1959, like in Moa Bay, Cuba, its complexity and high capital costs (over $100,000 per ton) have limited its adoption.
高压酸浸法可生产混合氢氧化物/硫化物沉淀物（MHP/MSP），2023 年 MHP 产量超 250 千吨，预计到2027年将增至600千吨，这主要得益于印度尼西亚的快速发展。尽管高压酸浸技术早在1959年就已出现（如古巴的莫阿湾项目），但其复杂性和高昂的资本成本（每吨超 10万美元）限制了其应用。
Recent projects outside Indonesia, including Goro, Ravensthorpe, Ambatovy, and Ramu, are facing long ramp-ups and high costs. However, Indonesia’s HPAL projects supported by Chinese investment and expertise now achieve costs below $35,000 per ton. For instance, the Obi Islands project (PT Halmahera Persada Lygend) ramped up in just 12 months using a flowsheet similar to the Chinese-owned Ramu plant. Strategic siting in Morowali and Weda Bay industrial parks further reduces costs.
印度尼西亚以外的近期项目（包括戈罗、雷文斯索普、安巴托维和拉穆项目）面临投产周期长、成本高的问题。然而，在中资和中国技术支持下，印度尼西亚的高压酸浸项目成本已降至每吨3.5万美元以下。例如，奥比岛项目（PT Halmahera Persada Lygend）采用与中资拉穆工厂类似的流程，仅用 12 个月就完成了投产。在莫罗瓦利和韦达湾工业园区的战略选址进一步降低了成本。
In 2019, most nickel sulfate was produced via matte and mixed precipitate intermediates, 20% was from scrap, and 20% was refined metal dissolution. In 2023, class 1 nickel dissolution was limited due to increasing intermediate production and the higher refined metal feedstock cost. Nickel sulfate production exceeded 500 kt and surpassed demand in that year.
2019年，大多数硫酸镍通过锍和混合沉淀物中间产物生产，20% 来自废料，20%来自精炼金属溶解。2023年，由于中间产物产量增加以及精炼金属原料成本上升，一级镍溶解量受限。同年，硫酸镍产量超500千吨，超过了需求。
The shift from cobalt-rich batteries has increased demand for high-nickel chemistries, with nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) and nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries containing 80% and 60–80% nickel, and newer NMC types nearing 90%.
随着电池从富钴型向高镍型转变，对高镍化学物质的需求增加。镍钴铝（NCA）电池和镍锰钴（NMC）电池的镍含量分别为80%和60-80%，而新型 NMC 电池的镍含量接近90%。
Nickel improves energy density and lowers costs, extending EV range. Most lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries now rely on nickel, which is also used in energy storage systems for renewables. Global cathode material producers are ramping up NMC output.
镍能提高能量密度并降低成本，从而延长电动汽车续航里程。大多数锂离子电池现在都依赖镍，镍也用于可再生能源的储能系统。全球正极材料生产商正加大NMC 的产量。
Nickel’s value also drives Li-ion battery recycling for reuse in new batteries. Indonesia, home to the world's largest nickel reserves, is prioritizing the development of its nickel supply chain. Future growth in nickel sulfate production will largely come from processing Indonesian laterites into matte or mixed hydroxide precipitate.
镍的价值还推动了锂离子电池的回收利用，以便重新用于新电池。3,4作为全球镍储量最大的国家，印度尼西亚正优先发展其镍供应链。未来硫酸镍产量的增长将主要来自于将印度尼西亚红土矿加工成锍或混合氢氧化物沉淀物。
Nickel Market Challenges镍市场的挑战
Nickel demand could be significantly reduced if nickel-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries continue gaining market share.
如果无镍的磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池继续扩大市场份额，镍需求可能会大幅下降。
In 2022, NMC batteries led with a 60% market share, followed by LFP at under 30%, and NCA at around 8%.
2022 年，NMC电池以 60% 的市场份额领先，其次是LFP 电池（占比不足 30%）和 NCA 电池（约占 8%）。
LFP’s growth, its highest in a decade, is driven by Chinese original equipment manufacturers. About 95% of LFP batteries for electric light-duty vehicles were used in made-in-China vehicles, with BYD accounting for 50% and Tesla 15%.
LFP电池的增长达到了十年来的最高水平，这得益于中国原始设备制造商的推动。约 95% 的轻型电动汽车用LFP电池用于中国制造的车辆，其中比亚迪占50%，特斯拉占15%。
Tesla’s LFP use rose from 20% in 2021 to 30% in 2022, mostly from Chinese manufacturing. However, LFP uses iron and phosphorus, offering lower energy density than NMC.
特斯拉的LFP电池使用率从2021年的 20% 升至 2022年的30%，主要来自中国生产的车辆。然而，LFP电池使用铁和磷，能量密度低于NMC电池。
The nickel supply chain is increasingly concentrated in Indonesia and China, raising supply disruption risks. Over 70% of nickel sulfate is produced in China, which relies on intermediates from Indonesia. Around 93% of matte and 63% of MHP imported by China in 2023 came from Indonesia.
镍供应链日益集中在印度尼西亚和中国，这增加了供应中断的风险。超70%的硫酸镍在中国制造，而中国依赖印度尼西亚的中间产物。2023年，中国进口的锍约93%和MHP约63% 来自印度尼西亚。
Chinese companies dominate Indonesian nickel production. In 2023, they produced 84% of the country’s battery-grade nickel, a share expected to fall but remain above 50% in the coming decade. By controlling nickel sulfate production and lateritic ore processing, China holds a strong position in the supply chain.
中国企业主导着印度尼西亚的镍生产。2023年，中国企业生产了该国 84% 的电池级镍，预计未来十年这一比例虽会下降，但仍将保持在50%以上。通过控制硫酸镍生产和红土矿加工，中国在供应链中占据了强势地位。
Diversifying will require building end-to-end capacity—mining, refining, and battery components—outside China. Despite growing Western investment in Indonesia and elsewhere, reliance on Chinese materials will likely continue due to long setup times for new facilities.
要实现供应链多元化，需要在中国制造体系之外建立端到端产能（包括采矿、精炼和电池组件生产）。尽管西方在印度尼西亚等地的投资不断增加，但由于新设施建设周期长，对中国材料的依赖可能会持续。
Future Indonesian nickel supply comes from laterites, using carbon- and coal-intensive processes. The laterite smelting and sulfidation (LSS) pathway emits significant SO2 and is more energy-intensive than leaching, potentially giving EVs with nickel batteries a higher social cost than combustion vehicles.
印度尼西亚未来的镍供应来自红土矿，采用的是高碳和煤炭密集型工艺。红土矿冶炼和硫化路径会排放大量二氧化硫，且比浸出法能耗更高，这可能使得使用镍电池的电动汽车的社会成本高于燃油车。
HPAL processing also generates 1.4-1.6 tons of fine waste per ton of nickel. While dry stacking is proposed for waste management, it is costly and risky in wet climates.
高压酸浸加工每吨镍还会产生1.4-1.6吨细废料。虽然有人提议采用干堆法处理废料，但在潮湿气候下，这种方法成本高且存在风险。
Rapid supply growth from Indonesia has lowered nickel prices from $48,000/t in March 2022 to $16,000/t in March 2024, forcing closures of higher-cost projects such as IGO, BHP, and First Quantum projects in Western Australia.
印度尼西亚镍供应的快速增长使得镍价从2022年3月的48,000美元/吨降至 2024年3月的 16,000美元/吨，迫使高成本项目关闭，如西澳大利亚的 IGO、必和必拓和第一量子项目。
Conclusion结论
The global nickel market is facing a fundamental moment. Demand is climbing fast—fueled largely by the boom in electric vehicles and the broader shift toward clean energy—but the supply side is looking increasingly fragile and concentrated.
全球镍市场正处于关键时期。在电动汽车热潮和向清洁能源广泛转型的推动下，需求快速攀升，但供应端却日益脆弱且集中。
Indonesia now dominates laterite-based production, while China controls most of the refining and nickel sulfate output. At the same time, new technologies, such as the growing use of LFP batteries, could start to limit nickel’s role in future battery designs.
印度尼西亚如今主导着红土矿基镍的生产，而中国则控制着大部分精炼和硫酸镍的产出。与此同时，磷酸铁锂电池的日益普及等新技术可能会限制镍在未来电池设计中的作用。
Balancing sustainability, supply security, and cost-effectiveness will be critical. Better processing of tech, a more diversified supply chain, and stronger environmental standards are needed if nickel is going to stay relevant in a low-carbon future.
平衡可持续性、供应安全和成本效益至关重要。若要让镍在低碳未来中保持重要地位，就需要改进加工技术、实现供应链多元化并提高环境标准。
The direction this market takes will depend on innovation and investment, as well as how well the industry can respond to shifting market pressures and growing environmental expectations.
这个市场的发展方向将取决于创新和投资，以及行业对不断变化的市场压力和日益增长的环境期望的应对能力。
镍市场的故事，从来不是简单的“供需账本”，而是技术迭代、地缘博弈与可持续发展的交织。当电动汽车的车轮滚滚向前，当储能需求节节攀升，镍的价值被重新定义——它既是推动清洁能源的“动力源”，也面临着其它替代技术的挑战；既依赖印尼的红土矿资源，又受制于供应链集中的风险；既需要降本增效的创新，更离不开绿色生产的转型。
未来，镍能否在低碳时代持续“闪光”，取决于能否打破资源依赖的桎梏、平衡环保与成本的天平、构建更多元的供应链网络。对于矿业人而言，读懂这场“镍”的变革，或许就握住了下一个十年的行业钥匙。
关注我们，持续追踪全球矿业动态，解码资源与未来的关联。
公司介绍
北京阳光创译语言翻译有限公司（Suntrans）成立于 2008 年 2 月。公司总部设立在北京，在美国纽约设有分公司，并在乌干达和巴基斯设有办事处。在董事长吕国博士的带领下，历时15年，阳光创译由最初只有6人的翻译团队发展至今成为拥有50 余名全职管理人员、 1024 名兼职译员和 68 名核心译审人员的专业队伍。
阳光创译是中国领先的专业领域多语服务提供商，是中国专业地质矿业语言服务领军品牌。目前是中国翻译协会成员、中国语言服务产业技术创新联盟成员和中国矿业联合会全球地质信息共享委员会理事会成员。阳光创译致力于为中国地质、矿业以及石油领域企业国际化和本地化提供整体语言解决方案，主要从语言翻译服务、人才培养和咨询服务三方面推进企业的国际化进程。