今天要分享的这篇文章同样选自AZO mining 新闻网站，作者是 Ankit Singh。文章聚焦白银市场的当下与未来，深入剖析了在经济环境收紧的背景下，白银的工业需求与投资需求如何相互作用，以及供应端的挑战将如何塑造这一市场的走向，对于关注大宗商品与绿色经济的读者来说颇具参考价值。
Silver Market Forecast: Industrial vs. Investment Demand in a Tightening Economy
白银市场展望：经济紧缩时期的工业需求与投资需求
By Ankit Singh Aug 8 2025
Silver is essential in the world of manufacturing and investing. As technology keeps pushing forward and the shift to green energy speeds up, factories and industries are using more silver than ever, even with the global economy under pressure. At the same time, many investors still see it as a dependable hedge and a safe place to store value. In this market report, we’ll look at what’s driving today’s silver market, where it might be headed, and the supply challenges that could shape its future.
白银在制造业与投资领域中不可或缺。随着技术持续突破与绿色能源转型加速，即便全球经济承压，工厂与各行业对白银的需求量仍创下历史新高。与此同时，许多投资者仍将其视为可靠的对冲工具与保值之选。本市场报告将剖析当前白银市场的驱动因素、未来走向，以及可能塑造其前景的供应挑战。
Silver’s Market Overview
白银市场概况
Silver occupies a unique position within global commodity markets, functioning as a critical industrial material and a vehicle for investment. In recent years, silver prices and demand dynamics have become more intricate, influenced by changing technological requirements and global economic factors.
白银在全球大宗商品市场中占据独特地位，既是关键工业原料，也是投资载体。近年来，受技术需求变化与全球经济因素影响，白银价格与需求动态愈发复杂。
As of July 2025, silver is priced at $38.10 per troy ounce, reflecting a 37% increase from the previous year. Analysts expect prices to approach $40 per ounce by the third quarter of 2025, with potential movement toward $50 by late 2026, driven by ongoing supply challenges and solid demand from end users.
截至2025年7月，白银价格为每金衡盎司38.10美元，较上年上涨37%。分析师预计，受持续供应压力与终端用户强劲需求推动，到2025年第三季度，白银价格将接近每盎司40美元，2026年底或有望升至50美元。
The silver market has been facing supply deficits since 2021, which have supported price growth and highlighted silver’s significance as an investment asset. Future trends will depend largely on mining supply and the balance between industrial and investment demand amid shifting global economic conditions.
自2021年起，白银市场便持续面临供应短缺，这一局面不仅支撑了价格上涨，也凸显了白银作为投资资产的重要性。未来趋势在很大程度上取决于矿产供应，以及全球经济形势变化下工业需求与投资需求的平衡。
Industrial Demand: Growth Drivers in Modern Economies
工业需求：现代经济的增长动力
Industrial applications now account for more than half of annual silver demand, surpassing traditional sectors such as jewelry and investment.
当前，工业应用占白银年需求量的一半以上，已超过珠宝、投资等传统领域。
In 2023, industrial demand reached 654.4 million ounces, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous year. Key drivers within this growth include rapid expansion within the green economy, primarily through photovoltaic solar panels, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics.
2023 年，工业需求量达 6.544 亿盎司，同比增长 11%。这一增长的核心驱动力来自绿色经济的快速扩张，尤其体现在光伏太阳能板、电动汽车与先进电子设备领域。
The use of silver in photovoltaic applications grew by 64% last year, reflecting sharp investments in renewable energy manufacturing, grid improvements, and transport electrification. Current solar panel technologies utilize more silver per unit than older versions.
去年，白银在光伏应用中的使用量增长64%，反映出可再生能源制造、电网升级与交通电气化领域的巨额投资。当前太阳能电池板技术的单位耗银量高于旧版本。
As China continues to promote renewable energy, the demand for silver in solar manufacturing is expected to increase. By 2027, projections suggest that solar manufacturers may require more than 20% of the current annual silver supply.
随着中国持续推进可再生能源发展，太阳能制造业对白银的需求预计将进一步上升。据预测，到2027 年，太阳能制造商的白银需求量可能超过当前年供应量的 20%。
The demand for silver in industry looks strong, with a predicted 46% increase over the next ten years. As more countries adopt green energy, industries such as electronics will play a big role in this growth. The Silver Institute reports that electronics are expected to grow by 56% in the coming years, making silver even more important in new technologies.
工业领域对白银的需求前景强劲，未来十年预计增长46%。随着更多国家采用绿色能源，电子等行业将成为这一增长的重要推手。白银协会报告显示，未来几年电子行业的白银需求预计增长 56%，这将使白银在新技术中的地位愈发重要。
Investment Demand: Patterns Amid Economic and Policy Headwinds
投资需求：经济与政策逆风下的趋势
While silver’s industrial side flourishes, investment demand has demonstrated more volatility. In 2023, total silver demand declined by 7% to 1,195 million ounces. This decrease was primarily driven by a decline in investment, along with weaker markets for jewelry and silverware.
尽管白银的工业需求蓬勃发展，投资需求却呈现出更强的波动性。2023年，白银总需求量下降7%，至11.95亿盎司。这一下降主要由投资减少及珠宝、银器市场疲软共同推动。
Investment in physical silver, such as bars and coins, saw significant reductions as investors favored alternatives such as gold, equities, and cryptocurrencies, which performed better in the current environment.
由于投资者更青睐黄金、股票和加密货币等在当前环境下表现更优的替代品，银条、银币等实物白银的投资量大幅缩减。
However, silver retains a strong reputation among many investors, particularly those positioned against inflation and concerned about fiat currency stability. Some experts have suggested that silver is undervalued and set reasonable price forecasts based on its historical performance during inflationary periods. Growing interest from institutions, along with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures markets, may help stabilize investment flows amid economic uncertainties
然而，白银在众多投资者中仍享有良好声誉，尤其是那些对抗通胀、担忧法定货币稳定性的投资者。部分专家认为，白银当前被低估，并依据其在通胀时期的历史表现给出了合理的价格预测。在经济不确定性背景下，机构关注度上升，加之交易所交易基金（ETFs）与期货市场的发展，或有助于稳定投资流向。
Mining: Supply-Side Tensions and Sustainability Challenges
矿业：供应端压力与可持续发展挑战
The mining sector faces a significant challenge in meeting the rising demand for silver. Most silver production occurs as a byproduct of mining for primary metals like lead, zinc, and copper. This relationship complicates silver output, making it susceptible to disruptions in the broader mining industry and fluctuations in the economic cycles of these primary metals.
采矿业在满足不断增长的白银需求方面面临重大挑战。大多数白银是铅、锌、铜等主金属矿产的副产品，这种关联使白银产量变得复杂，易受整个矿业领域波动及主金属经济周期变化的影响。
In 2023, global mine production decreased by nearly 1%, reaching a total of 830.5 million ounces. This decline resulted from operational suspensions and lower ore grades in key countries, particularly Mexico and Peru.
2023 年，全球矿山产量下降近 1%，总计 8.305 亿盎司。这一下降源于主要产国（尤其是墨西哥和秘鲁）的生产暂停与矿石品位下降。
With production expected to increase slightly in India and elsewhere in the short term, projections for 2025 suggest an output of approximately 944 million ounces. However, forecasts indicate that production may drop to 901 million ounces by 2030 due to anticipated mine closures in regions such as Mexico, Bolivia, and Russia. Regulatory changes, including stricter licensing and new environmental compliance measures, also contribute to rising production costs.
短期内，印度等地区的产量预计小幅增长，2025 年预计产量约为 9.44 亿盎司。但预测显示，受墨西哥、玻利维亚、俄罗斯等地区矿山关停影响，到 2030 年，产量或降至 9.01 亿盎司。监管变化（包括更严格的许可制度与新的环境合规要求）也推高了生产成本。
Ore grades, which signify silver content in mined rock, have decreased by around 22% since the mid-2010s. Although prices have risen, mining output has not returned to previous highs. The industry grapples with rising costs, labor disputes, and geopolitical risks. There is an increasing emphasis on sustainable practices in response to environmental concerns. Many mining companies are investing in automation and improved recycling methods, though these initiatives are still in development.
自2010 年代中期以来，代表矿石中白银含量的矿石品位下降约22%。尽管价格上涨，矿业产量却未恢复至此前高点。行业正面临成本上升、劳资纠纷与地缘政治风险等多重挑战。为回应环境关切，可持续实践日益受到重视。许多矿业公司正投资自动化与回收技术改进，不过这些举措仍处于发展阶段。
Supply Deficits, Market Risks, and Strategic Responses
供应短缺、市场风险与战略应对
Analysts project that silver will continue to experience supply deficits in the coming years. Sustained deficits have already begun to draw down aboveground stockpiles, adding further pressure to supply. The resulting market dynamics may support silver prices and attract investors seeking alternatives during uncertain economic times.
分析师预测，未来几年白银供应短缺将持续。持续短缺已开始消耗地上库存，进一步加剧供应压力。由此形成的市场动态或支撑白银价格，并吸引在经济不确定时期寻求替代投资的投资者。
Silver mining companies are focusing on expanding production capacity and exploring new deposits in regions with significant reserves, such as Mexico, Peru, and Chile.
白银矿业公司正专注于扩大产能，并在墨西哥、秘鲁、智利等储量丰富的地区勘探新矿床。
Prominent players, including Hindustan Zinc, Glencore, and First Majestic, are investing in technology and environmental compliance to enhance resource extraction and reduce costs. However, competition from alternative materials such as copper and aluminum presents a long-term challenge, particularly in the electronics and electrical sectors.
Hindustan Zinc、Glencore和First Majestic 等行业巨头正投资技术与环境合规领域，以提高资源开采效率、降低成本。然而，铜、铝等替代材料的竞争构成长期挑战，尤其在电子与电气领域。
The silver mining industry must also address environmental risks more effectively. Water scarcity is driving increased recycling of silver and waste, with innovations emerging from academic partnerships and greener recovery processes. Enhanced digital tools, improved data analytics, and a gradual shift toward low-carbon energy sources are essential for achieving productivity and sustainability in the sector.
白银矿业还需更有效应对环境风险。水资源短缺正推动白银与废弃物回收，学术合作与绿色回收工艺催生了诸多创新。先进数字工具、优化数据分析及逐步转向低碳能源，对实现该行业的生产力与可持续发展至关重要。
Conclusion
结论
The silver market sits at the heart of a structural shift. Industrial demand, powered by clean technology and digital transformation, commands a greater portion of the market.
白银市场正处于结构性变革的核心。在清洁技术与数字化转型的推动下，工业需求在市场中占据更大份额。
While investment demand is cyclical, it still plays a key role in supporting the asset’s overall value. Supply challenges, such as declining ore grades and regulatory changes, are prompting mining companies to innovate and expand responsibly. This environment suggests ongoing supply deficits, rising prices, and a transforming mining sector, creating opportunities for investors and stakeholders.
尽管投资需求具有周期性，但其在支撑白银整体价值方面仍发挥关键作用。矿石品位下降、监管调整等供应端挑战，正促使矿业企业开展创新并推进负责任的扩张。这种市场环境意味着供应短缺将持续、价格将上涨，矿业行业也将迎来转型，为投资者与利益相关方创造机遇。
整体而言，白银市场正站在工业需求主导与供应端变革的交叉点上。绿色经济的加速、技术的迭代，既为白银带来了前所未有的需求增量，也让其面临资源约束与替代材料的挑战。对于投资者和行业参与者来说，把握这一结构性变化中的机遇，或许能在白银市场的波动与增长中找到属于自己的答案。后续白银价格走向与行业转型动态，值得持续关注。
公司介绍
北京阳光创译语言翻译有限公司（Suntrans）成立于 2008 年 2 月。公司总部设立在北京，在美国纽约设有分公司，并在乌干达和巴基斯设有办事处。在董事长吕国博士的带领下，历时15年，阳光创译由最初只有6人的翻译团队发展至今成为拥有50 余名全职管理人员、 1024 名兼职译员和 68 名核心译审人员的专业队伍。
阳光创译是中国领先的专业领域多语服务提供商，是中国专业地质矿业语言服务领军品牌。目前是中国翻译协会成员、中国语言服务产业技术创新联盟成员和中国矿业联合会全球地质信息共享委员会理事会成员。阳光创译致力于为中国地质、矿业以及石油领域企业国际化和本地化提供整体语言解决方案，主要从语言翻译服务、人才培养和咨询服务三方面推进企业的国际化进程。